Monday 3 November 2008

Prediction time

OK, so I'm back and the wedding is all done. I had to get this quick post out as I wanted to put a prediction on paper before voting tomorrow in the US presidential election.
I am not one of those who fear the Bradley Effect hugely - I think it will be balanced out by increased black turnout.
So with a hint of caution - I predict an Obama win in the electoral college by 318 to 220. And this is how I see it happening...This is my map from the Real Clear Politics website, where you can go and make your own prediction. And I'll go for 51%-48% in the popular vote.
Some wider margins are being predicted out there though. Electoral Vote's map is predicting Obama to win 353 - 185 and the BBC suggest 311 - 160 with 67 still in play.
Let's wait and see...

2 comments:

simon said...

not far off. I think more people voted for him because he was black rather not vote for him as he is black. If you get me

Yednnek said...

Agreed completely, that's what I was gdetting at with 'reverse' Bradley effect - probably could have explained it better.
I was hopeful it would be this big a win to send a messgae but I was wary of the GOP faithful turning out strong. Winning places like Indiana was huge.