OK, so I'm back and the wedding is all done. I had to get this quick post out as I wanted to put a prediction on paper before voting tomorrow in the US presidential election.
I am not one of those who fear the Bradley Effect hugely - I think it will be balanced out by increased black turnout.
I am not one of those who fear the Bradley Effect hugely - I think it will be balanced out by increased black turnout.
So with a hint of caution - I predict an Obama win in the electoral college by 318 to 220. And this is how I see it happening...
This is my map from the Real Clear Politics website, where you can go and make your own prediction. And I'll go for 51%-48% in the popular vote.
Some wider margins are being predicted out there though. Electoral Vote's map is predicting Obama to win 353 - 185 and the BBC suggest 311 - 160 with 67 still in play.
Let's wait and see...
This is my map from the Real Clear Politics website, where you can go and make your own prediction. And I'll go for 51%-48% in the popular vote.Some wider margins are being predicted out there though. Electoral Vote's map is predicting Obama to win 353 - 185 and the BBC suggest 311 - 160 with 67 still in play.
Let's wait and see...
2 comments:
not far off. I think more people voted for him because he was black rather not vote for him as he is black. If you get me
Agreed completely, that's what I was gdetting at with 'reverse' Bradley effect - probably could have explained it better.
I was hopeful it would be this big a win to send a messgae but I was wary of the GOP faithful turning out strong. Winning places like Indiana was huge.
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